Venkat Mangudi

Writing on cybersecurity, AI, resilience, leadership, and risk.

Follow

The Event Source Seesaw

Two concentric donuts. Outer ring: external events by surface, Windows 93.4%, Web 3.4%, Shell 2.2%, other 1.0%. Inner ring: sources, 60.9% first seen this week and 39.1% seen before.
The Wild Signals. What we observe in the wild, translated for the enterprise.

Events rose 44.3% while the number of sources fell 11.0%, and five older flaws joined the exploited list.

SECTION 01

What the signals mean

Events recorded on the Venus decoys rose 44.3% this week, to 1,358,989 from 941,813, while distinct sources fell 11.0%, to 5,724 from 6,431. The Windows surface supplied 412,933 of the 417,176 additional events. Campaigns, the groups of related sessions the decoys link together, rose to 3,429 from 980 in Edition 010.

CHANGE IN REQUESTS BY CATEGORY, THIS WEEK AGAINST EDITION 010
Directory traversal882 → 1,741 +97.4%
Admin and management consoles2,344 → 3,766 +60.7%
Webshell locations6,375 → 8,445 +32.5%
PHP remote include254 → 239 −5.9%
Backup and archive files686 → 589 −14.1%
Secrets and configuration files20,645 → 16,335 −20.9%
SQL injection12 → 2 −83.3%
Bar length shows the size of the change. Copper bars rose; grey bars fell.

Traversal doubled again from 28 sources

Directory traversal requests, which step outside a website’s public folder to read files behind it, rose 97.4%, to 1,741 from 882. All five of the most requested paths end at an environment file. The leader, /@fs/../.env, drew 81 requests against 39 and uses a route in the Vite development server. Four siblings under /assets../, /files../, /media../ and /static../ drew 45 each.

Consoles and script files grew

Requests for admin and management consoles rose 60.7%, to 3,766 from 2,344. The three most requested paths were /console, /admin and /dashboard, at 297, 286 and 284. Requests for server-side script files, the kind an attacker plants as a web shell, rose 32.5%, to 8,445 from 6,375, led by /index.php, /info.php and /phpinfo.php.

Secrets and archives fell again

Requests for secrets and configuration files fell 20.9%, to 16,335 from 20,645, and backup and archive requests fell 14.1%, to 589 from 686. /.env drew 630 requests against 643, /.env.local 263 against 375 and /.env.development 170 against 307. Terraform state, the record of every server and password a cloud build created, drew 63 requests for the root file against 67. /backup.zip fell to 17 from 67. Windows file sharing probes drew 182,365 events from 2,428 sources, down 2.6%.

Five older flaws joined the exploited catalogue

On 8 October five vulnerabilities were added to the catalogue of flaws confirmed as exploited in the wild, each with remediation due 11 October. Three date from 2015 and 2016: ProFTPD, Apache Struts and the BIND name server. The others are ONLYOFFICE Docs from 2021 and the Strapi content system from 2023. The ProFTPD flaw lets an attacker read and write files and has a public Metasploit module. Its EPSS score, a forecast of exploitation within 30 days, is 0.9950.

Forecasts rose on flaws already listed

Check Point’s remote access VPN flaw CVE-2026-50751, on the catalogue since June with ransomware use recorded, rose to 0.853 from 0.063. Zimbra rose to 0.717 from 0.117 and SharePoint to 0.695 from 0.175. A default-password flaw from 1998, CVE-1999-0502, stands at 0.5334 after one of its Metasploit login modules changed.

Exploitation reported before cataloguing

SonicWall SMA1000 was exploited three days after its patch, and Atlassian Data Center within hours of a public proof of concept. Rejetto HFS and AhsayCBS are also being exploited. None was on the catalogue by the end of the week.

The fingerprint cluster returned

The remote desktop tool identified by fingerprint 73ede1f461b6 ran from 262 addresses this week and produced 3,694 sessions, against 85 addresses and 2,352 sessions in Edition 010. It had stayed under a hundred addresses for two weeks.

ADDRESSES CARRYING FINGERPRINT 73EDE1F461B6
99
Ed. 007
408
Ed. 008
90
Ed. 009
85
Ed. 010
262
Ed. 011

What to act on

Patch the five catalogue additions first, since the 11 October deadline has passed. SonicWall, Atlassian and Citrix NetScaler follow. Remove site archives, Terraform state and every environment-file variant from any path a web server can reach, and keep development servers off external networks.

How much of our software is ten years old?
SECTION 02
Technical field notes
Venus observation period
5 Oct – 11 Oct 2026
Medulus intelligence period
5 Oct – 11 Oct 2026

1,358,989 external events (+44.3%). 5,724 distinct sources (−11.0%). 13,896 sessions (−20.1%).

Against Edition 010’s published figures, events rose from 941,813 to 1,358,989, sources fell from 6,431 to 5,724 and sessions from 17,396 to 13,896. 3,484 sources were first observed this week and 2,240 had been seen before, against 3,891 and 2,540. By surface, Windows rose 48.2% to 1,269,134 from 856,201, Web rose 18.2% to 45,939 from 38,872, Shell fell 10.3% to 29,871 from 33,309 and Database fell 25.4% to 675 from 905. API rose 105.6% to 4,697 and Portal 106.8% to 4,708, while Auth fell 46.6% to 1,550 and VPN 52.3% to 2,415. Active campaigns rose to 3,429 from 980, up 249.9%, and 1,355 are flagged recurring, against 263.

Ranked signals

RankSignalEventsEd. 010ChangeSourcesScore
1SQL Injection Probing212−83.3%10.4500
2Webshell / RCE Script Probing8,4456,375+32.5%2150.4352
3Sensitive File & Secret Exposure16,33520,645−20.9%1820.3903
4Directory / Path Traversal1,741882+97.4%280.3843
5PHP Injection / Remote Include239254−5.9%250.3643
6MySQL Credential Attack384656−41.5%730.3551
7Admin Console Discovery3,7662,344+60.7%1300.3083
8Automated Scanner / Recon Tooling749976−23.3%1050.2761
9SSH Invalid-User Enumeration28,99331,892−9.1%†4580.2525
10SMB Credential Attack166,232164,763+0.9%650.2342
11SSH Access Probing29,87133,309−10.3%†8580.1870
12SSH Campaign Targeting1,9933,183−37.4%†2490.1741
13SMB Access Probing182,365187,206−2.6%2,4280.1448

† The three SSH signals rest on the Shell feed, which ran at 98.21% batch coverage this period and complete in the comparison period. The change is computed against Edition 010’s published counts, and a small part of it may be collection.

Remote desktop fingerprint campaigns

Client signatureSessionsEd. 010ChangeSourcesEd. 010Change
TLS 73ede1f461b63,6942,352+57.1%26285+208.2%
RDP cookie “hello”576416+38.5%121115+5.2%
TLS 43e25370946f403241+67.2%9691+5.5%
RDP cookie “anonymous”364not published–55not published–

Source counts cannot be added across the four signatures because one address may carry more than one. Only the first signature changed its footprint sharply. The other three grew by 5.2% to 5.5% in addresses and by far more in sessions.

Path families

FamilyEventsEd. 010ChangePathsSourcesMost requested
Sensitive File & Secret Exposure16,33520,645−20.9%1,201182/.env (630), /.env.local (263)
Backup & Archive Download Probing589686−14.1%9728/terraform.tfstate (63), /deploy/terraform.tfstate (20)
Webshell / RCE Script Probing8,4456,375+32.5%2,030215/index.php (161), /info.php (99)
Admin Console Discovery3,7662,344+60.7%685130/console (297), /admin (286)
Directory / Path Traversal1,741882+97.4%7828/@fs/../.env (81), /assets../.env (45)
SQL Injection Probing212−83.3%11/api/action/datastore_search_sql (2)

Distinct paths rose to 685 from 308 in the admin family and to 2,030 from 1,441 in the webshell family, so those wordlists lengthened. The sensitive-file list shortened, to 1,201 paths from 1,507, and traversal paths fell to 78 from 90. The SQL injection requests came from a single source on 8 October and asked for one data-search path.

Representative paths

Secrets and configurationEventsEd. 010Backup and archiveEventsEd. 010
/.env630643/terraform.tfstate6367
/.env.local263375/deploy/terraform.tfstate20not published
/.git/config257333/infra/terraform.tfstate20not published
/.env.production212not published/infrastructure/terraform.tfstate19not published
/.env.development170307/backup.zip1767

Four of the five backup paths are Terraform state in different directories. /backup.tar.gz, /site.zip and /public_html.zip are no longer among the five most requested.

Behaviour progression

326 sessions carried behaviour from two or more distinct stages, against 343 in Edition 010.

OrderingSessionsEd. 010ChangeSourcesEd. 010Busiest sourceEvasive
Discovery, then Exploitation229239−4.2%13414421 (9.17%)3.49%
Exploitation, then Discovery97104−6.7%73978 (8.25%)18.56%

The busiest source’s share of the forward ordering rose for a second week, to 9.17% from 8.79%, and the busiest source in the reverse ordering produced 8.25% of its sessions against 2.88%. A descending ordering is consistent with one tool issuing credential attempts before enumeration as much as with any escalation.

Vulnerability mapping

IdentifierDescriptionHitsEd. 010ChangeSourcesKEV
CWE-312Cleartext secrets (.env)13,34515,448−13.6%97no
CVE-2021-41773Apache traversal8,4856,414+32.3%219yes
CVE-2019-0232Tomcat CGI8,4456,375+32.5%215no
CWE-527Exposed Git1,4131,857−23.9%105no
CVE-2017-9841PHPUnit eval-stdin415512−18.9%17yes
CVE-2012-1823PHP-CGI argument injection239254−5.9%25yes

14 of the mapping’s 17 identifiers were reached, against 13, and 6 of the 14 are on the KEV catalogue. CVE-2023-2982 rose to 140 hits from 82, CVE-2022-22963 fell to 49 from 100 and CVE-2022-22965 to 34 from 79, CVE-2021-42013 held at 40 against 39, and CVE-2017-12629 and CVE-2021-27905 each reached 20 against 10. CWE-22 appeared with 5 hits and CWE-89 fell to 2 from 12. Detection is inference from request path and behavioural tag, never observed exploitation.

Medulus correlation

17 vulnerabilities qualified this period, against 28 in Edition 010, with the actor and advisory association signal still withdrawn. Five entries were added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalogue on 8 October, each due 11 October: ProFTPD CVE-2015-3306 (mod_copy file read and write, CVSS 10.0, EPSS 0.9950, Metasploit module), ONLYOFFICE Docs CVE-2021-3199 (traversal to code execution, EPSS up from 0.082 to 0.194), Apache Struts CVE-2016-3081 (dynamic method invocation, 0.9605), ISC BIND CVE-2015-5477 (TKEY denial of service, 0.9941) and Strapi CVE-2023-22894 (0.0361). Metasploit modules for the Langflow flaws CVE-2026-0769 (unauthenticated, EPSS 0.4169) and CVE-2026-7873 changed on 8 October, and CVE-2026-0768 rose from 0.085 to 0.232.

LARGEST EPSS RISES, BEFORE (MARKER) AND AFTER (BAR), SCALE 0 TO 1
Check Point CVE-2026-50751 (KEV, ransomware use)0.063 → 0.853
Zimbra CVE-2026-73570 (KEV since 21 Aug)0.117 → 0.717
SharePoint CVE-2026-55040 (KEV since 18 Aug)0.175 → 0.695
Kafka UI CVE-2024-32030 (no public module)0.394 → 0.511
Apache Tika CVE-2025-54988 (Metasploit scanner)0.367 → 0.485
Langflow CVE-2026-0768 (Metasploit module)0.085 → 0.232

Reporting also describes exploitation of SonicWall SMA1000 CVE-2026-102255 (maximum severity, three days after its patch), Atlassian Data Center CVE-2026-21589, Rejetto HFS CVE-2026-61500 (session key recovery to administrator access and code execution) and two AhsayCBS flaws used to deploy web shells and XMRig miners. Citrix patched a further NetScaler flaw, CVE-2026-107406, that allows code execution or denial of service in SAML deployments, with an EPSS of 0.0047. None of these is on the catalogue.

Technical checks for the week

  • Patch: ProFTPD, Apache Struts, ISC BIND, ONLYOFFICE Docs and Strapi. Remediation was due 11 October.
  • Patch: SonicWall SMA1000, Atlassian Data Center and Citrix NetScaler for CVE-2026-107406.
  • Remove: Terraform state, site archives, .git directories and every .env variant from web-reachable paths.
  • Prioritise: Langflow, Check Point IKEv1 remote access and Rejetto HFS. Each has public exploit material or a rising forecast.
  • Restrict: SMB to internal networks, and Vite development servers to local addresses.
  • Review: default and blank passwords on database, FTP and SSH services.

Venus records activity reaching Elytra-operated decoy observation infrastructure. Medulus provides public vulnerability and threat-intelligence context. An observed request establishes an attempt, not a successful compromise. Week-on-week comparisons are drawn from the figures published in Edition 010.

Observed through Venus. Correlated with Medulus.

Discover more from Venkat Mangudi

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading